Blackjack odds come down to three numbers you can carry to any table. You win about 42 hands in 100, the dealer busts about 28 times in 100, and you are dealt a natural about once in 21 hands. Everything else, from when to hit to how much a session costs, follows from how those odds shift with your total and the dealer's upcard.
On this page
Why you lose more hands than you win
With basic strategy on a six-deck table where the dealer stands on soft 17, every hand ends one of three ways:
| Result | Share of hands |
|---|---|
| Net win | 42.43% |
| Push | 8.48% |
| Net loss | 49.09% |
On a count of hands you are 6.66 points behind. The house edge on such a table is still under half a percent, because the hands you win pay more on average than the ones you lose. A natural pays 1.5 bets at 3:2. A won double pays two bets, and doubles happen when you are favourite. Split hands work the same way. That is why the payout on a natural and the doubling rules matter so much: they are how the player claws back those 6.66 points. Our house edge page prices each rule.
Your chance of busting when you hit
Blackjack has thirteen card ranks, and four of them (10, J, Q, K) count as ten. On six or eight decks, each rank turns up close to one time in thirteen, so the bust chance on a hard total is:
bust chance ≈ ranks that take you past 21 ÷ 13
| Hard total when you hit | Cards that bust you | Bust chance |
|---|---|---|
| 11 or less | none | 0% |
| 12 | 10, J, Q, K | 4/13 ≈ 30.8% |
| 13 | 9 and ten-cards | 5/13 ≈ 38.5% |
| 14 | 8 and up | 6/13 ≈ 46.2% |
| 15 | 7 and up | 7/13 ≈ 53.8% |
| 16 | 6 and up | 8/13 ≈ 61.5% |
| 17 | 5 and up | 9/13 ≈ 69.2% |
| 18 | 4 and up | 10/13 ≈ 76.9% |
| 19 | 3 and up | 11/13 ≈ 84.6% |
| 20 | everything but an ace | 12/13 ≈ 92.3% |
Soft hands cannot bust on one card: the ace drops from 11 to 1. That is why a soft total is a safe hand to draw to or to double down on.
The table shows the trap in hard 12 to 16. Hitting 16 busts you more often than not, yet the basic strategy chart still hits it against a 7 to ace. The reason is on the dealer's side of the table.
How often the dealer busts, by upcard
The dealer has no choices: hit to 17, then stand. So the dealer's bust chance depends only on the upcard and the soft 17 rule. Six decks, counting a dealer blackjack as a made hand:
| Dealer upcard | Dealer stands on soft 17 | Dealer hits soft 17 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | 35.4% | 35.7% |
| 3 | 37.4% | 37.7% |
| 4 | 39.6% | 39.8% |
| 5 | 41.8% | 42.0% |
| 6 | 42.3% | 43.9% |
| 7 | 26.2% | 26.2% |
| 8 | 24.4% | 24.4% |
| 9 | 22.9% | 22.9% |
| 10, J, Q, K | 21.2% | 21.2% |
| Ace | 11.5% | 13.9% |
Weight each row by how often that upcard appears (one in 13, ten-cards four in 13) and the dealer busts about 28.2% of the time when standing on soft 17, about 28.6% when hitting it.
Put this table next to the one above and basic strategy explains itself. Holding 16 against a 6, you would bust 61.5% of the time if you hit, while the dealer busts 42.3% on their own: stand. Holding 16 against a 10, the dealer busts only 21.2%, so standing wins rarely; hitting, bad as it is, loses less.
The H17 column moves most with a 6 or an ace showing, the two upcards that make a soft 17 with a single card. Those two cells carry most of the extra house edge of an H17 table.
Natural blackjack odds by number of decks
A natural is an ace plus a ten-value card as your first two cards. With N cards in the shoe:
natural chance = 2 × (aces ÷ N) × (ten-cards ÷ (N − 1))
| Decks | Calculation | Chance | About one in |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 × 4/52 × 16/51 | 4.83% | 20.7 hands |
| 2 | 2 × 8/104 × 32/103 | 4.78% | 20.9 hands |
| 6 | 2 × 24/312 × 96/311 | 4.75% | 21.1 hands |
| 8 | 2 × 32/416 × 128/415 | 4.75% | 21.1 hands |
Fewer decks give slightly more naturals, which is part of why single-deck games are cheaper on paper. A single-deck table that pays 6:5 throws that away and more: see 3:2 vs 6:5.
How long you can go without one
At 4.75% a hand, the chance of no natural in a row of hands is 0.9525 raised to the number of hands:
| Hands played | Naturals expected | Chance of none at all |
|---|---|---|
| 20 | 0.95 | 37.8% |
| 50 | 2.4 | 8.8% |
| 100 | 4.75 | 0.8% |
A dry spell of 20 hands is ordinary: it happens more than a third of the time. Over 100 hands, going without a single blackjack is rare: under one session in a hundred by the blackjack odds above.
Play live and RNG blackjack with crypto.
What shifts the odds most
- The dealer's upcard. Dealer bust chance runs from 11.5% to 42.3% depending on one card. Nothing else at the table moves that far.
- Your hard total. Each point from 12 to 16 adds 7.7 points to your own bust chance.
- The soft 17 rule. It changes the dealer's odds mostly with a 6 or an ace up, by 1.6 and 2.4 points.
- The number of decks. Small effect on naturals, under a tenth of a point between one and eight decks.
A checklist for reading blackjack odds at a table
- Read the soft 17 rule first; it decides which dealer column applies.
- Check the payout on a natural. The 4.75% only pays well at 3:2.
- Use the bust tables for intuition and the chart for decisions: they agree, but the chart already weighs both sides.
- Treat insurance as a separate bet with its own odds; our insurance and side bets page works it out.
- At provably fair blackjack tables, the shuffle of each round can be checked after it is dealt; the odds above apply to the deck count the game states.
Where to play with these blackjack odds
The odds above hold at any fair table with the stated rules, whether RNG, live or provably fair. These are the casinos we compare; the provably fair focus below shows which run their own checkable games.
- 1
Vave
4.9/5Studio tables only; no provably fair originals listed.
Latcas B.V. · since 2022 · Licence Curaçao OGL/2024/1676/0905 · 90 coins: BTC, ETH, USDT, LTC · Sportsbook on the same account
- 2
Metaspins
4.8/5Runs its own provably fair originals next to studio tables.
Metaspins N.V. · Licence Curaçao OGL/2024/1063/0437 · 8 coins: BTC, ETH, USDT, BCH · Provably fair originals · Sportsbook on the same account
- 3
Shuffle
4.8/5Runs its own provably fair originals next to studio tables.
Natural Nine B.V. · since 2023 · Licence Curaçao OGL/2024/1337/0628 · 20 coins: BTC, ETH, LTC, SOL · Provably fair originals · Sportsbook on the same account
- 4
Stake
4.3/5Runs its own provably fair originals next to studio tables.
Medium Rare N.V. · Licence Curaçao OGL/2024/1451/0918 · Provably fair originals · Sportsbook on the same account
- 5
BC.Game
4.2/5Runs its own provably fair originals next to studio tables.
Operating company not stated · since 2017 · Licence Anjouan ALSI-202410011-FI1 · 150 coins: BTC, ETH, XRP, LTC · Provably fair originals · Sportsbook on the same account
Casinos with provably fair originals first, then by score.
Questions and answers
What are the odds of winning a hand of blackjack?
About 42.4% with basic strategy on a six-deck table where the dealer stands on soft 17. About 8.5% of hands push and about 49.1% lose.
How often does the dealer bust?
About 28% of the time across all upcards on six decks when the dealer stands on soft 17. Against a 5 or 6 it is close to 42%; against an ace, under 12%.
What are the odds of getting a blackjack?
About 4.75% on six or eight decks, or one hand in 21. A single deck gives 4.83%.
What is the chance of busting on 16?
If you hit, eight of the thirteen ranks bust you: about 61.5%. Basic strategy still hits 16 against a 7 to ace, because standing loses more often.